Are Asia Rates about to Level?

Varying reports in the media this month are suggesting a levelling out of rates may occur during 2018 for ocean freight from Asia.

We have summarised some of the observations being reported.

The capacity outlook had previously revealed an industry facing an over-supply in capacity as huge numbers of mega-ships had been scheduled to come online in 2018 and 2019.

The picture has reportedly changed, since COSCO Shipping — the carrier with the largest order book — announced it was deferring the launch of 10 ships from 2018 to 2019. Yang Ming have also announced that it will defer three ships that were also scheduled for 2018 delivery.

Although larger ships have recently been committed to the market, container volume forecasts are reasonably positive. Recent reports suggest that supply versus demand may well be evenly matched, with overcapacity now forecasted to decrease, not increase, through to 2020.

Taking this into consideration, reports are suggesting that rate levels will be fairly consistent through to late 2018, albeit with possible spikes either side of Chinese New Year.

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